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In 2024 (and as of today) Inter Miami has played 5 games without Messi, collecting 3 losses, 1 draw and 1 win. At the same time, the team has played 10 matches with the Argentinian superstar, collecting 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss.
Photo published by Inter Miami
As far as 2023 goes, here are Inter Miami stats with and without Messi:
With Lionel Messi
Games Played: 12
Wins: 11 (3 via penalty shootouts)
Draws: 1
Losses: 1
Goals For: 34
Messi's Contribution: 16 goals (11 scored, 5 assisted)
Goals Against: 12
Points Per Game (MLS only): 2.83
Win Rate: 91.6% (66.6% excluding shootouts)
Loss Rate: 8.3%
Without Lionel Messi
Games Played: 30
Wins: 10 (1 via penalty shootout)
Draws: 4
Losses: 16
Goals For: 35
Goals Against: 49
Points Per Game (MLS only): 1.13
Win Rate: 33.3% (30% excluding shootouts)
Loss Rate: 53.3%
A pertinent question to consider is whether the mere presence of Messi alone is sufficient to win matches, or if the performance of other team players is also impacted by simply having Messi on the field.
Clearly, Messi's presence deeply impacts the tactical elements of a game. However, we can reasonably hypothesize that the statistical performance of other players might not vary significantly solely due to the presence of one player, unless there is a psychological component that enhances performance, knowing that Messi is playing alongside them.
Thanks to the capabilities of SofaScore, we are able to analyze each of Inter Miami's 2024 matches from a statistical standpoint:
The average team score for Inter Miami CF when Lionel Messi was playing is approximately 7.10, and when he was absent, the average team score is approximately 6.88. This suggests a noticeable positive impact on the team's performance when Messi is on the field.
2023 should be broken down in two parts: pre and post Messi. it is also important to point out that the League Cup doesn't have scores on SofaScore and therefore our results and analysis for the post Messi analysis are likely lower than they should be (Inter Miami won the League Cup collecting 6 wins and 1 draw with Messi).
Here is the pre Messi analysis:
Here is the post Messi analysis:
It is extremely interesting to see how the team average without Messi is pretty similar to the team average of the pre Messi era. However, performance definitively boost for the whole team when Messi is on the field (except for the last game of the season). As mentioned earlier, these numbers do not include the League Cup matches, which would have likely increased both the total team average and the team average with Messi.
How Does SofaScore Calculate Player Ratings?
SofaScore calculates individual player performance ratings using a sophisticated algorithm that analyzes hundreds of data points collected during a match. This algorithm is designed to be completely objective, applying the same criteria to every player, although there are minor adjustments based on the player's position on the field.
The key aspects of SofaScore's rating system include:
Data Collection: The rating system uses real-time data collected during the match, including a wide range of actions such as passes, tackles, goals, assists, and many more.
Positive and Negative Factors: Specific actions contribute positively or negatively to a player's rating. Positive contributions might include scoring goals, providing assists, or making key defensive actions. Negative impacts could come from actions like receiving red cards, scoring own goals, or making errors that lead to goals.
Rating Updates: The ratings are updated throughout the match, with the algorithm recalculating the player's score up to 60 times during a game and several more times after the match concludes.
Objective Measurement: The goal of SofaScore's rating system is to offer an unbiased, objective measure of a player's performance, free from the subjective interpretations often found in human-generated match reviews.
The result of a game does not directly impact the individual player scores calculated by SofaScore's rating system. SofaScore's algorithm is designed to be objective and evaluates individual performances based on specific actions and metrics observed during the game, regardless of the overall outcome of the match.
While a player’s actions can influence the result of the game, the result itself does not feed back into the rating. For example, a player who scores two goals in a losing match can still receive a high rating for their personal contribution.
The algorithm incorporates a wide array of data points to ensure that each player's performance is measured accurately and comprehensively, making the ratings a reflection of individual contributions rather than the final score of the match.
Analysis of Team Performance Without Messi (2024)
Overall Team Rating Impact: When Messi is absent, the team's ratings generally trend lower compared to many matches where he is present. The only exception is the match against DC United, where the team still managed a high rating and a win even without Messi.
Consistency and Performance: The matches where Messi was absent show a lack of consistency in the team's performance:
Wins: There is only one win recorded without Messi (against DC United), which suggests that while the team can occasionally perform well without him, his presence is generally a significant factor in securing victories.
Losses and Draws: Without Messi, the team experienced 2 losses and 2 draws. These results indicate a decrease in competitive edge and overall effectiveness in matches.
Comparison with Messi’s Presence: In matches where Messi played, his ratings are notably high, often outperforming the team's overall rating. This suggests that his individual performance has a substantial positive impact on the team’s outcomes. When he is present, the team’s win rate is higher, and the overall team rating also tends to be more robust.
Statistical Relevance
Statistical Drop in Ratings: The decline in the team's ratings in Messi's absence compared to their performance when he is present is statistically significant enough to consider his impact substantial. The ratings drop, coupled with less favorable match outcomes, underscores his influence.
Impact on Match Outcomes: With Messi, the team tends to secure more positive results (mostly wins). Without him, there's a noticeable increase in losses and draws.
The Messi Effect on Teammates
Our conclusion is that there could indeed be a psychological component affecting the teammates of Lionel Messi, causing them to achieve lower statistical scores when he is not on the field. This effect is often observed in sports and can be attributed to several psychological factors:
Confidence and Morale: Players might feel more confident and motivated when a star player like Messi is on the field. His presence can boost team morale and the belief in their ability to perform well and win. When he is absent, the lack of his leadership and skill can lead to decreased confidence and morale, which can affect performance negatively.
Reliance and Dependency: Teammates might become reliant on a star player's skills to drive the game forward or resolve difficult situations. This dependency can lead to less initiative or lower performance when the star player is absent, as other team members might feel less equipped to take charge or make impactful plays.
Pressure and Stress: The pressure to perform without a key player can also lead to increased stress among the remaining players. This stress can impact their focus and execution during the game, leading to lower performance ratings.
Tactical Adjustments: Teams often have to adjust their tactics to compensate for the absence of a significant player like Messi. These changes can disrupt team dynamics and individual roles, potentially leading to a temporary decrease in performance as players adapt to new responsibilities.
These psychological effects are supported by sports psychology research, which suggests that the mental state of athletes significantly influences their performance. The impact of a high-profile player like Messi extends beyond his physical contributions to the game; his influence on team psychology is equally substantial. Thus, when analyzing team performance in his absence, it's essential to consider these psychological factors alongside more tangible aspects like tactics and physical performance.
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