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The answer to this question depends on the following four factors:
#1. The answer Varies Based on Which HDI Scale We Are Considering
This depends on which HDI scale are we considering. More specifically, the HDI assessment provides insights across 23 specific psychometric scales, which are grouped into the three broad facets of: Openness, Relationship Building, and Mental Strength. Of the HDI’s 23 specific scales, 16 already have a strong history from more than two decades of well-documented predictive validity evidence that supports their use. The remaining 7 scales have been developed specifically for the context of professional sports and would require a single concurrent validation study—with data collected in a real-life field setting—in order to support the claim that they have the expected correlational relationships that would justify the assertion of predictive validity (for these 7 new HDI scales). Such a study could conceivably be conducted over a period of a few days with a team that would be open to partnering with us to collect this data.
#2. It Depends on What Behavioral Outcome We Are Predicting
This also depends on which behavioral outcomes we are using the various HDI psychometric scales to help us predict, and is where things get a bit more nuanced because it requires careful parsing beyond broad and generalized claims that the “HDI scales have predictive validity.” For example, 9 of the HDI scales (used for Openness and Relationship Building) have been shown to be strongly predictive of an individual’s success at not only reaching out and developing new relationships, but in building those new relationships with people from who come from diverse demographic, ethnic, and national backgrounds (which is highly relevant to teams with players from multinational backgrounds).
These scales can also predict how well individuals adapt to new and unfamiliar cross-cultural circumstances—not just internationally (such as when a Dutch player moves to Italy to play for AC Milan), but also domestically (such as when an NBA player born and raised on the U.S. east coast gets traded from the Washington Wizards and has to move to Utah to play for the Jazz).
The same sort of dynamic also holds true for 8 of the HDI’s Mental Strength scales for predicting an array of coping mechanisms that we know to be predictive of healthy psychological resilience and coping behaviors.
#3. Using the Similarities of Behavioral Outcomes in Sports to the Outcomes of Our Other Studies
Establishing predictive validity of HDI assessments for professional sports can also be bolstered by determining the similarity of behavioral outcomes for the sports scenario relative to the outcomes predicted in the cross-cultural, relationship building, and mental strength demands where the Kozai Group assessments were originally developed and validated.
This is a strategy sometimes referred to in psychometric studies as “synthetic” or “job-components” validity. For example, the HDI scales of “Open to Coaching” and “Growth Seeking” have not as of yet been validated for use in a professional sports context; however, they do have parallels to the already established predictive validity in corporate settings for openness to feedback from bosses or managers, and growth seeking tendencies for students in academic settings (for example, do students have an innate and natural drive to learn and develop versus do they just wait passively to be instructed).
Thus, while several of the new HDI scales were developed for the context of professional sports, we are confident that they are well-rooted in isomorphically similar corporate and educational contexts, such that a pilot study to empirically verify their predictive validity for the professional sports context can be undertaken with optimism as we look to move forward with a team that is open to partnering with us to collect the data needed to make this claim of predictive validity with empirical certainty.
#4. We Focus on Predispositions and Expected Behaviors
And finally, there is one more consideration that relates to the question of how are predictors (like “Resilience” or “Open to Coaching,” for example) are different from “hard” measures of player abilities?
This is an important distinction because many of the player “hard” skills (such as “VO2 max,” for example) will have a much more direct predictive statistical relationship to objective performance data (such as how many seconds can a player maintain a sprint at full speed), and can thus more easily get built into predictive performance algorithms.
On the other hand, psychometric data—while also predictive—tells us more about the individual’s “predispositions” for expected behaviors, which then depends highly on context for us to see them. For example, Zlatan Ibrahimović once famously said “I always want to become better. If never being satisfied is a problem, then I have it.”
From this simple statement, we get a glimpse into the strength of Ibrahimović’s innate drive for excellence and growth seeking (both of which are measured by HDI assessment scales). However, given the wrong team context, a player’s natural predisposition for excellence and drive for growth could be squashed by a coach with a demeaning leadership style, or by a team culture that rewards and incentivizes compliance, while stifling (or even punishing) initiative. In such a “strong context,” an individual’s native predispositions can be overwhelmed—and even shut down—by the environment they are in, to the point where others would be surprised to learn of their innate predispositions and natural proclivities.
Focus on "Buy" and Make Decisions
In sum, HDI’s all-encompassing approach to the use of psychometric data for managing player performance, helps teams with both their “buy” and “make” personnel decisions.
With regard to the “buy” decision, our psychometric data gives teams a clear-eyed picture of the natural and innate predispositions that each player has within them.
In addition, with regard to the “make” decision, HDI’s psychometric data also helps teams by ensuring that the context of their team leadership and culture are also leveraged to take maximum advantage of the all player and team assets as the basis for its enduring competitive advantage.
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